Cómo evitar una depresión

NUEVA YORK – Los mercados financieros están llevando el mundo hacia otra Gran Depresión de consecuencias políticas incalculables. Las autoridades, especialmente en Europa, han perdido el control de la situación. Es preciso que lo recuperen, y es preciso que lo hagan ya.

Hay tres medidas audaces que se deben implementar. En primer lugar, los gobiernos de la eurozona deben acordar las bases de un nuevo tratado que cree un organismo de hacienda común para todos los países miembros. Mientras tanto, los bancos más importantes se deben someter a la dirección del Banco Central Europeo, a cambio de un programa temporal de garantías y de una recapitalización permanente. En tercer lugar, el BCE debe permitir que por un tiempo países como Italia y España puedan refinanciar sus deudas a un costo muy bajo.

Estas medidas calmarán a los mercados y darán a Europa tiempo para elaborar una estrategia de crecimiento, algo imprescindible para resolver el problema de la deuda. De hecho, la importancia de elaborar esa estrategia es algo sobre lo que conviene insistir, porque la carga de la deuda (la relación entre la deuda y el PIB anual) aumenta y disminuye, en parte, como función de los índices de crecimiento económico.

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