富国的主权风险

纽约 —— 如今,许多发达经济体财政赤字累累,政府债台高筑,已引发主权风险忧虑。以前,说起主权风险,人们主要想到新兴市场经济体。毕竟,在过去 10 年里,俄罗斯、阿根廷、厄瓜多尔曾发生公债违约,而巴基斯坦、乌克兰和乌拉圭靠着强行推进公债重组,才免于违约。

然而,除了中、东欧的几个例外,大多数新兴市场经济体的财政表现都有所改善 —— 总体赤字下降,收支保有很大的基本盈余(刨去债务利息支出后的盈余),公债的 GDP 占比降低,公债中的货币错配和期限错配现象也有所缓解。如今,主权风险与其说是新兴市场经济体的弱点,不如说是发达经济体的难题。

评级降级,国债息差扩大,英国、希腊、爱尔兰和西班牙等国公债流拍……说真的,去年的种种迹象严峻地提醒人们,除非发达经济体着手整顿财政结构,否则投资者、“债券市场义勇军”( bond-market vigilantes ,指通过抛售国债来对抗扩张性政策的投资者群体)和评级机构就会由朋友转为敌人。 2008~2009 年,金融危机和严重衰退联翩而至,发达国家税收下滑,却不得不扩大开支刺激经济,还要为金融业输血、调养,这一切都使它们的财政体质急剧恶化。

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