Los riesgos del retiro

BERLÍN – Entrar en guerra es fácil; salir de la guerra es la parte difícil. Ese axioma es particularmente válido para Estados Unidos hoy, mientras lidia con tres guerras –dos de las cuales le fueron impuestas (Afganistán y la “guerra contra el terrorismo”) y la tercera (Irak) que fue iniciada innecesariamente por una administración estadounidense cegada por la ideología y la desmesura.

Estados Unidos no tiene perspectivas de una victoria militar en Afganistán o Irak; ya prácticamente resulta imposible seguir tolerando los costos económicos de esas guerras, y el respaldo político fronteras adentro está desvaneciéndose. Estados Unidos debe retirarse, pero el precio –para Estados Unidos, sus aliados en la región y para Occidente- sigue siendo una incógnita.

Las últimas tropas de combate estadounidenses se han retirado de Irak. A pesar de usar todos los medios a su alcance, la mayor potencia militar del mundo sólo logró crear una estabilidad doméstica precaria. Nadie hoy está colgando carteles con la leyenda “misión cumplida”. En verdad, no se resolvió ninguno de los problemas políticos urgentes causados por la intervención estadounidense –el reparto de poder entre los chiís y los sunitas, entre los kurdos y los árabes, y entre Bagdad y las regiones.

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