控制北极的石油热

维也纳——急剧萎缩的北极冰盖是地球自然界最显著的变化之一,并由此对环境和经济产生极为深远的影响。一方面,我们将眼睁睁失去地球最大也最重要的生态系统。另一方面,曾经传说中的东北和西北通道能减少一半的运输时间和成本,让中国和日本离欧洲和北美东海岸更近。

北极地区巨大的石油矿产储量开发难度相比目前大大降低将是更直接的结果。阿拉斯加陆地油田和俄罗斯北部陆上天然气田大规模产出碳氢化合物已有多年,但相比北冰洋底的预测储量根本算不了什么。据国际能源企业按现价测算,上述资源可能超过7万亿美元;如果再算上伴生的天然气,那么10万亿美元或许只是比较保守的数字。

由于北冰洋大部水域较浅且位于大陆架上,与之相邻的国家都在争先恐后地宣布按照联合国海洋法公约的规定设立专属经济区。北极理事会在政治上也骤然升温,设立该理事会的初衷是为推动北极各国之间的合作。除加拿大、北欧五国、俄罗斯和美国等八个成员国之外,理事会还吸收了由德、法、英等大国组成的六个常任观察员国。现在,中国、印度和日本也正积极谋求加入。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/iipsAw4/zh;
  1. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    Angela Merkel’s Endgame?

    The collapse of coalition negotiations has left German Chancellor Angela Merkel facing a stark choice between forming a minority government or calling for a new election. But would a minority government necessarily be as bad as Germans have traditionally thought?

  2. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.

  3. A GrabBike rider uses his mobile phone Bay Ismoyo/Getty Images

    The Platform Economy

    While developed countries in Europe, North America, and Asia are rapidly aging, emerging economies are predominantly youthful. Nigerian, Indonesian, and Vietnamese young people will shape global work trends at an increasingly rapid pace, bringing to bear their experience in dynamic informal markets on a tech-enabled gig economy.

  4. Trump Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Profiles in Discouragement

    One day, the United States will turn the page on Donald Trump. But, as Americans prepare to observe their Thanksgiving holiday, they should reflect that their country's culture and global standing will never recover fully from the wounds that his presidency is inflicting on them.

  5. Mugabe kisses Grace JEKESAI NJIKIZANA/AFP/Getty Images

    How Women Shape Coups

    In Zimbabwe, as in all coups, much behind-the-scenes plotting continues to take place in the aftermath of the military's overthrow of President Robert Mugabe. But who the eventual winners and losers are may depend, among other things, on the gender of the plotters.

  6. Oil barrels Ahmad Al-Rubaye/Getty Images

    The Abnormality of Oil

    At the 2017 Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, the consensus among industry executives was that oil prices will still be around $60 per barrel in November 2018. But there is evidence to suggest that the uptick in global growth and developments in Saudi Arabia will push the price as high as $80 in the meantime.

  7. Israeli soldier Menahem Kahana/Getty Images

    The Saudi Prince’s Dangerous War Games

    Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is working hard to consolidate power and establish his country as the Middle East’s only hegemon. But his efforts – which include an attempt to trigger a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon – increasingly look like the work of an immature gambler.