El acto de (re)equilibrio asiático

SEÚL – El rápido crecimiento económico de China indudablemente beneficia al resto de Asia. De hecho, la fuerte demanda china ha sostenido el crecimiento basado en las exportaciones de sus socios comerciales durante gran parte de las últimas tres décadas. Pero ahora, frente a la desaceleración china y sus significativos riesgos de baja, el resto de Asia debe abandonar la dependencia excesiva de sus estrategias de desarrollo orientadas a las exportaciones, para buscar un crecimiento estable y sostenible en los niveles local y regional.

Las vulnerabilidades y los riesgos chinos –derivados de burbujas inmobiliarias, la banca en la sombra y la deuda de sus gobiernos locales– han dado lugar a preocupaciones sobre una crisis no solo en ese país, sino también en las economías de sus vecinos asiáticos. Algunos, de hecho, predicen ahora un desastre bancario o fiscal chino, mientras que otros auguran un estancamiento en el largo plazo similar a las décadas perdidas del Japón.

Estos escenarios de «aterrizaje forzoso» son extremos. Pero el camino que aguarda es accidentado e incierto. Nadie puede garantizar el éxito a los intentos del primer ministro Li Keqiang por lograr el desapalancamiento y la reforma estructural. Además, los shocks externos, los errores de política y la inestabilidad política podrían trastocar incluso los planes mejor diseñados.

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