O Número de “Reequilibrismo” da Ásia

SEUL – O rápido crescimento económico na China beneficiou indubitavelmente o resto da Ásia. Na verdade, a forte procura Chinesa tem apoiado o crescimento induzido por exportações dos seus parceiros comerciais durante a maior parte das últimas três décadas. Mas agora, face ao abrandamento na China e aos significativos riscos negativos daí decorrentes, o resto da Ásia deverá abandonar a dependência excessiva das estratégias de desenvolvimento baseadas nas exportações e esforçar-se para garantir um crescimento estável e sustentável tanto no campo interno como regional.

As vulnerabilidades e riscos da China – decorrentes de bolhas imobiliárias, de actividade bancária paralela, e da dívida dos governos locais – despoletaram preocupações sobre uma crise não apenas na China, mas também nos países Asiáticos vizinhos. Alguns, na verdade, prevêem agora um desastre bancário ou fiscal Chinês; outros prevêem uma estagnação de longo prazo equivalente às décadas perdidas do Japão.

Estes cenários de “aterragem forçada” são extremos. Mas o caminho em frente é acidentado e incerto. Ninguém poderá garantir que as tentativas do Primeiro-Ministro Li Keqiang de conseguir a desalavancagem e reformas estruturais serão bem-sucedidas. Além disso, os choques externos, os erros políticos, e a instabilidade política poderão perturbar até os melhores planos.

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