Pour un rééquilibrage des économies asiatiques

SEOUL – La croissance rapide de l'économie chinoise bénéficie incontestablement au reste de l'Asie. Au cours des 30 dernières années la demande chinoise a alimenté la croissance de ses partenaires commerciaux grâce à l'importation massive des produits de ces derniers. Mais confronté au ralentissement économique et au risque d'une baisse de la demande de la Chine, le reste de l'Asie doit abandonner une stratégie de croissance basée sur les exportations pour parvenir à une croissance stable et durable reposant sur la demande intérieure et la demande régionale.

Les vulnérabilités et les risques liés à la Chine (bulles immobilières, développement des banques de l'ombre et endettement des gouvernements provinciaux) suscitent l'inquiétude non seulement en Chine, mais aussi dans les pays voisins. Certains observateurs prévoient même une catastrophe bancaire ou budgétaire, voire une stagnation de longue durée équivalente aux décennies perdues du Japon.

Ces scénarios sont extrêmes. Mais l'avenir pourrait être difficile, en tout cas il est incertain. Rien ne garantit que la politique de désendettement et les réformes structurelles du Premier ministre Li Keqiang vont  réussir. Par ailleurs, un choc externe, des erreurs politiques ou des désordres peuvent perturber les projets les mieux préparés.

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