亚洲的再平衡举措

发自首尔——中国经济的快速增长无疑让其余亚洲国家受益良多。事实上,在过去三十年中正是中国的强劲需求支撑其贸易伙伴实现了大幅的出口带动型增长。但如今面对中国经济增长放缓以及明显的下行风险,亚洲其他国家必须放弃过分依赖出口导向型的发展战略,并努力确保国内和区域内的稳定可持续增长。

中国的漏洞和风险——源于房地产泡沫、影子银行,以及地方政府债务——不仅导致其国内对危机的担忧不已,还引起了各亚洲邻国的忧虑。事实上,有些人预测中国会爆发银行或财政灾难;其他人则预测中国经济会长期停滞,相当于日本迷失的十年。

这些“硬着陆”的都属于极端情况。但未来的道路将是坎坷且充满不确定性的。没有人可以保证李克强总理的去杠杆化和结构改革会成功。就算已经制订了最完美的计划,也可能被外部冲击,政策失误以及政治不稳定所打乱。

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