Paul Lachine

十问QE

纽约——大多数观察者认为,非传统货币政策,如量化宽松(QE),是让当前乏力的经济重新启动的必要手段。但关于QE有效性和风险的质疑也日益增多。此类政策的十种潜在成本尤其值得注意。

第一,尽管纯“奥地利学派”的(瘦身)方案主张强行戳破资产和信贷泡沫,容易导致萧条,显得过于严厉,但QE政策将私人和公共部门必要的去杠杆化阶段无止尽地拖延下去,也会造成一大批经济“僵尸”的恶果:僵尸金融机构、僵尸家庭部门和僵尸企业,最终,还有僵尸政府。所以,为了避免奥地利学派和凯恩斯主义的两个极端,QE需要逐步退出。

第二,反复QE可能会令效果逐渐减弱,因为向实体经济传导的渠道会被堵塞。债券收益率低迷,使得债券渠道不起作用;银行囤积资金,周转停滞,使得信贷渠道形同虚设。说真的,那些有能力借款的人(信用级别高的企业和优质家庭客户)不想借款也无需借款,而那些需要借款的人——高杠杆的企业和非优质家庭客户——却因信贷紧缩无力借款。

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