Chinees schaduwbankieren minder gevaarlijk dan het lijkt

HONG KONG – De verspreiding van het ondoorzichtige, losjes gereguleerde (of ongereguleerde) schaduwbanksysteem van China heeft geleid tot zorgen over de mogelijke gevolgen voor de financiële stabiliteit. Maar hoe groot – en riskant – is de praktijk van het schaduwbankieren in China eigenlijk?

Volgens de commissie die toezicht uitoefent op het Chinese bankwezen is het schaduwbankieren (alle leningen die niet voldoen aan de normen die voor conventionele bankleningen gelden) toegenomen van ¥800 mrd ($130 mrd) in 2008 naar ¥7.6 bln in 2012 (grofweg 14,6% van het bruto binnenlands product, bbp). Alle bankactiviteiten in China die buiten de balans worden gehouden – kredieten aan vastgoedontwikkelaars (30-40%), lokale overheden (20-30%), en kleine en middelgrote bedrijven, individuen en ontvangers van overbruggingskredieten – werden in 2012 in totaal geschat op ¥17 bln, ongeveer een derde van het bbp.

De term “schaduwbankieren” heeft opgeld gedaan tijdens de subprime-crisis in de Verenigde Staten. Hij werd gebruikt als benaming voor al het niet-bancaire geld op de kapitaalmarkt, zoals geldmarktfondsen, hypotheekobligaties en allerlei soorten derivaten, doorgaans gefinancierd door zakenbanken en grote institutionele beleggers. In 2007 heeft het volume aan schaduwbanktransacties in de Verenigde Staten dat van de conventionele bankbezittingen overtroffen.

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