越来越高的自然代价

日益严重的自然资源短缺是今天基本的全球趋势。石油和天然气价格大幅飙升。食品价格暴涨,导致贫困人口陷入困境,各国及城乡地区之间的收入也不断发生着变化。

自然资源价格攀升最基本的原因是经济的强劲增长,特别是在中国和印度。这两个国家在生产具有全球竞争力的商品和服务领域取得了主导地位,它们已经可观的经济规模仍然以每7-10年翻一番的速度快速增长。但这样的增长正在触及土地、木材、石油和天然气储量、水资源和其它限制条件的自然极限。于是,只要是自然中上市交易的产品和服务(比如能源和食品),价格都在快速飙升。而那些不上市交易的资源(比如洁净的空气),其结果就不是高价,而是污染和耗竭。

世界食品价格大幅攀升,过去12个月以来指数(以美元计价)上升了约40%左右。造成这种结果的原因多种多样,但最根本的是食品消费的增加,这与中国的经济增长关系也非常密切。中国的民众消费更多的食品,尤其是肉类,于是需要进口大量大豆和玉米制成的动物饲料。中国土地和水资源的稀缺性导致它很难通过国产作物来满足日益膨胀的需求。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/AH9aRg2/zh;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now