解决中国通胀的正确途径

    华盛顿--中国的通货膨胀率从2007年三月的3.3%上升到2008年三月的8.3%,对中国的社会稳定构成了威胁。因此,中国人民银行已经大幅度提高利率和各银行的储备金水平。中国政府的难题是在不损害其长期持续强劲经济增长的情况下治理通货膨胀。这里充满了风险。

    中国不断加速的通货膨胀与其GDP增长率同步,从2006年已经很高的11%上升到2007年的11.5%。2007年中以来价格上涨的直接原因是,随着国内越来越多的部门,例如发电、交通以及中间产品产业需求超出供应,从而出现了生产瓶颈。

    持续强劲的增长以及上扬的总体需求还在中国以外的地方造成生产瓶颈,最主要的是在农业商品和采矿行业。这就把石油价格推到了100多美元一桶。火上加油的是另外两个引发通胀的因素。首先是猪繁殖与呼吸综合症或称猪蓝耳病在全国范围内造成大量猪的死亡,而猪则是中国的主要肉类来源。第二,一月份的大雪灾降低了农作物和蔬菜的供应。

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