Paul Lachine

Amarrando el despertar árabe

LONDRES – La situación económica en los países del llamado despertar árabe se está deteriorando rápidamente. Egipto se está quedando sin efectivo -antes de los recientes préstamos de rescate, las reservas monetarias alcanzaban para menos de tres meses de importaciones- y los egipcios están acopiando combustible y alimentos para anticiparse a futuras escaseces. Los cortes de energía más frecuentes y más duraderos predicen un futuro peor en una economía que ya lidia con un desempleo masivo, una exclusión generalizada y bolsones profundos de pobreza.

La estabilidad macroeconómica de corto plazo es la prioridad inmediata en Egipto y los otros países del despertar árabe. En el mediano plazo, sin embargo, la viabilidad del orden actual está en juego -y no sólo en estos países, sino en todo el resto del norte de África y Oriente Medio.

Con tanto en juego, Majid Jafar de Crescent Petroleum, con sede en EAU, tenía razón de estar preocupado en el reciente Foro Económico Mundial sobre Oriente Medio y el Norte de África en el Mar Muerto. Su propuesta de un Plan de Estabilización Árabe, inspirado en el Plan Marshall posterior a 1945 en Europa occidental, es loable. El imperativo de una acción coordinada de gran escala es acuciante. ¿Pero acaso el Plan Marshall es el modelo correcto?

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