Der richtige Populismus für Polen

Bei den polnischen Parlaments- und Präsidentschaftswahlen in diesem Monat konnte man den Tod einer linksgerichteten postkommunistischen Partei beobachten, die das Land seit 1995 zum größten Teil regierte. Doch bedeutet der Niedergang der Linken nicht, dass die Rechten ein schlüssiges Wirtschaftsprogramm hätten. Denn die siegreiche Koalition aus der Partei Recht und Gerechtigkeit (PiS) und der Bürgerplattform (PO) ist zwischen liberalen (PO) und populistischen (PiS) Impulsen hin- und hergerissen.

Wenn die populistischen Slogans der PiS in Politik umgesetzt werden, erhöhen sich wahrscheinlich die Staatsausgaben, was Polens ohnehin schwache Finanzlage verschärfen und infolgedessen Inflationserwartungen auslösen wird. Schlimmer noch, eine Anhebung der Sozialausgaben wird wenig dazu beitragen, die (zum größten Teil strukturelle) Arbeitslosigkeit im Land mit einer niederschmetternden Quote von 17,5 % zu verbessern, während jegliche Hoffnung auf eine schnelle Einführung des Euros zunichte gemacht wird.

Was Polen am meisten braucht, sind finanzielle Disziplin und marktorientierte Reformen, einschließlich einer Lockerung der starren Arbeitsgesetze, die die Schaffung von Arbeitsplätzen behindern. Schließlich haben in den letzten beiden Jahrzehnten die bleibenden Ziele, den Kommunismus und die zentralistische Planung abzuschaffen sowie der Europäischen Union beizutreten, als wichtige Triebfedern für Reformen gedient. Doch kann eine zur Hälfte liberale und zur Hälfte populistische Regierung den politischen Willen zu weiteren Reformen aufbringen?

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