El fin de la fiesta de los mercados emergentes

CAMBRIDGE – El entusiasmo por los mercados emergentes ha ido esfumándose este año y no sólo por los recortes previstos por la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos a sus compras de activos en gran escala. Las acciones y los bonos de los mercados emergentes han bajado en el año transcurrido y el crecimiento económico se está desacelerando. Para ver por qué, resulta útil entender cómo llegamos a la situación actual.

Entre 2003 y 2011, el PIB en dólares a precios corrientes aumentó un 35 por ciento acumulativo en los Estados Unidos y un 32 por ciento, un 36 por ciento y un 49 por ciento en Gran Bretaña, el Japón y Alemania, respectivamente, todos ellos calculados en dólares de los EE.UU. En el mismo período, el PIB nominal en dólares experimentó el vertiginoso aumento de un 348 por ciento en el Brasil, un 346 por ciento en China, un 331 por ciento en Rusia y un 203 por ciento en la India.

Y no fueron sólo los tal llamados países BRIC los que experimentaron el auge. La producción de Kazakistán aumentó más de un 500 por ciento, mientras que Indonesia, Nigeria, Etiopía, Rwanda, Ucrania, Chile, Colombia, Rumania y Vietnam vieron su PIB en dólares crecer más de un 200 por ciento cada uno. Eso significa que las ventas por término medio, en dólares, hechas en supermercados, empresas de bebidas, grandes almacenes, empresas de telecomunicaciones, tiendas de informática y los concesionarios de motos chinas aumentaron a tasas comparables en esos países. Tiene sentido que las empresas se trasladen a donde hay auge de las ventas en dólares y que los gestores de activos pongan dinero donde el crecimiento del PIB en dólares es más rápido.

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