El fin de la fiesta de los mercados emergentes

CAMBRIDGE – El entusiasmo por los mercados emergentes ha ido esfumándose este año y no sólo por los recortes previstos por la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos a sus compras de activos en gran escala. Las acciones y los bonos de los mercados emergentes han bajado en el año transcurrido y el crecimiento económico se está desacelerando. Para ver por qué, resulta útil entender cómo llegamos a la situación actual.

Entre 2003 y 2011, el PIB en dólares a precios corrientes aumentó un 35 por ciento acumulativo en los Estados Unidos y un 32 por ciento, un 36 por ciento y un 49 por ciento en Gran Bretaña, el Japón y Alemania, respectivamente, todos ellos calculados en dólares de los EE.UU. En el mismo período, el PIB nominal en dólares experimentó el vertiginoso aumento de un 348 por ciento en el Brasil, un 346 por ciento en China, un 331 por ciento en Rusia y un 203 por ciento en la India.

Y no fueron sólo los tal llamados países BRIC los que experimentaron el auge. La producción de Kazakistán aumentó más de un 500 por ciento, mientras que Indonesia, Nigeria, Etiopía, Rwanda, Ucrania, Chile, Colombia, Rumania y Vietnam vieron su PIB en dólares crecer más de un 200 por ciento cada uno. Eso significa que las ventas por término medio, en dólares, hechas en supermercados, empresas de bebidas, grandes almacenes, empresas de telecomunicaciones, tiendas de informática y los concesionarios de motos chinas aumentaron a tasas comparables en esos países. Tiene sentido que las empresas se trasladen a donde hay auge de las ventas en dólares y que los gestores de activos pongan dinero donde el crecimiento del PIB en dólares es más rápido.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/MwSBU7f/es;
  1. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    Angela Merkel’s Endgame?

    The collapse of coalition negotiations has left German Chancellor Angela Merkel facing a stark choice between forming a minority government or calling for a new election. But would a minority government necessarily be as bad as Germans have traditionally thought?

  2. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.

  3. A GrabBike rider uses his mobile phone Bay Ismoyo/Getty Images

    The Platform Economy

    While developed countries in Europe, North America, and Asia are rapidly aging, emerging economies are predominantly youthful. Nigerian, Indonesian, and Vietnamese young people will shape global work trends at an increasingly rapid pace, bringing to bear their experience in dynamic informal markets on a tech-enabled gig economy.

  4. Trump Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Profiles in Discouragement

    One day, the United States will turn the page on Donald Trump. But, as Americans prepare to observe their Thanksgiving holiday, they should reflect that their country's culture and global standing will never recover fully from the wounds that his presidency is inflicting on them.

  5. Mugabe kisses Grace JEKESAI NJIKIZANA/AFP/Getty Images

    How Women Shape Coups

    In Zimbabwe, as in all coups, much behind-the-scenes plotting continues to take place in the aftermath of the military's overthrow of President Robert Mugabe. But who the eventual winners and losers are may depend, among other things, on the gender of the plotters.

  6. Oil barrels Ahmad Al-Rubaye/Getty Images

    The Abnormality of Oil

    At the 2017 Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, the consensus among industry executives was that oil prices will still be around $60 per barrel in November 2018. But there is evidence to suggest that the uptick in global growth and developments in Saudi Arabia will push the price as high as $80 in the meantime.

  7. Israeli soldier Menahem Kahana/Getty Images

    The Saudi Prince’s Dangerous War Games

    Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is working hard to consolidate power and establish his country as the Middle East’s only hegemon. But his efforts – which include an attempt to trigger a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon – increasingly look like the work of an immature gambler.