O Fim da Festa dos Mercados Emergentes

CAMBRIDGE – O entusiasmo pelos mercados emergentes evaporou-se durante este ano, e não apenas por causa dos cortes de compras em larga escala de activos, planeados pela Reserva Federal dos EUA. As acções e obrigações dos mercados emergentes estão este ano em baixa e o seu crescimento económico está a abrandar. Para vermos porquê, é útil entender como chegámos aqui.

Entre 2003 e 2011, o crescimento cumulativo do PIB a preços correntes foi de 35% nos Estados Unidos, e de 32%, 36%, e 49%, na Grã-Bretanha, Japão, e Alemanha, respectivamente, medidos em dólares americanos. No mesmo período, o PIB nominal disparou em 348% no Brasil, 346% na China, 331% na Rússia, e 203% na Índia, também em dólares americanos.

E não foram apenas os chamados países BRIC que se expandiram. A produção do Cazaquistão expandiu-se em mais de 500%, enquanto a Indonésia, a Nigéria, a Etiópia, o Ruanda, a Ucrânia, o Chile, a Colômbia, a Roménia, e o Vietname cresceram mais de 200% cada um. Isto significa que as vendas médias, medidas em dólares americanos, realizadas por supermercados, companhias de bebidas, grandes armazéns, operadores de telecomunicações, lojas de computadores, e vendedores de motociclos Chineses cresceram nestes países a taxas similares. Faz sentido que as empresas migrem para onde as vendas em dólares estão a expandir, e que os gestores de activos invistam o seu dinheiro onde o crescimento do PIB medido em dólares é mais rápido.

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