La festa dei mercati emergenti è finita

CAMBRIDGE – L'entusiasmo per i mercati emergenti si è andato dissolvendo quest'anno, e non solo per via dei tagli agli acquisti di asset su larga scala, previsti dalla Federal Reserve americana. I titoli e le obbligazioni dei mercati emergenti sono in calo per l'anno corrente e la loro crescita economica sta rallentando. Per comprendere il perché di questa situazione, è utile capire come ci si è arrivati.

Tra il 2003 e il 2011, il Pil a prezzi correnti, espresso in dollari americani, è cresciuto complessivamente del 35% negli Stati Uniti, e del 32%, 36% e 49% rispettivamente in Gran Bretagna, Giappone e Germania. Nello stesso periodo, il Pil nominale, sempre espresso in dollari,  è aumentato del 348% in Brasile, del 346% in Cina, del 331% in Russia e del 203% in India.

A registrare un boom non sono stati solo i cosiddetti paesi BRIC. Il prodotto del Kazakistan è cresciuto di oltre il 500%, mentre quello dell'Indonesia, della Nigeria, dell'Etiopia, del Ruanda, dell'Ucraina, del Cile, della Colombia, della Romania e del Vietnam è aumentato di oltre il 200% ciascuno. Questo sta a significare che, in questi paesi, la media delle vendite realizzate da supermercati, aziende produttrici di bevande, grandi magazzini, telecomunicazioni, negozi di computer e rivenditori di moto cinesi, espressa in dollari, è aumentata a un ritmo paragonabile. Per le aziende ha senso trasferirsi là dove le vendite in dollari sono in piena espansione, e per chi gestisce un portafoglio di investimenti spostare il denaro lì dove la crescita del Pil espressa in dollari è più rapida.

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