Ende der Party an den Schwellenmärkten

CAMBRIDGE, MASS. – Die Begeisterung für die Schwellenmärkte hat sich in diesem Jahr verflüchtigt, und das nicht allein aufgrund der geplanten Reduzierungen bei den umfassenden Anlagekäufen der US Federal Reserve. Die Aktien und Anleihen der Schwellenländer sind in diesem Jahr gefallen, und ihr Wirtschaftswachstum verlangsamt sich. Um den Grund dafür zu begreifen, ist es nützlich, zu verstehen, wie wir an diesen Punkt gelangt sind.

Zwischen 2003 und 2011 stieg das BIP in aktuellen Preisen in den USA um kumulative 35%, und um 32%, 36% und 49% in Großbritannien, Japan bzw. Deutschland, alles gemessen in US-Dollar. Im selben Zeitraum stieg das nominale BIP in Brasilien um 348%, in China um 346%, in Russland um 331% und in Indien um 203% (ebenfalls in US-Dollar).

Und es waren nicht nur diese sogenannten BRIC-Länder, die einen derartigen Aufschwung erlebten. Die Produktionsleistung Kasachstans nahm um mehr als 500% zu, während das Wachstum in Indonesien, Nigeria, Äthiopien, Ruanda, der Ukraine, Chile, Kolumbien, Rumänien und Vietnam jeweils mehr als 200% betrug. Dies bedeutet, dass der durchschnittliche Umsatz gemessen in US-Dollar der Supermärkte, Getränkehersteller, Kaufhäuser, Telekommunikationsanbieter, Computerläden und chinesischen Motorradverkäufer in diesen Ländern in vergleichbarem Maße anstieg. Es ist für Unternehmen sinnvoll, dorthin zu ziehen, wo der Dollarumsatz boomt, und für Vermögensmanager, Geld dort anzulegen, wo das BIP-Wachstum gemessen in Dollar am höchsten ist.

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