La fin de la fête pour les marchés émergents

CAMBRIDGE – L’engouement pour les marchés émergents s’est progressivement évaporé cette année, et pas seulement à cause des coupes prévues par la Réserve fédérale américaine dans ses achats d’actifs à grande échelle. Les actions et obligations des marchés émergents ont été à la baisse toute l’année et la croissance économique de ces pays est en train de ralentir. Pour en comprendre la raison, il est utile de bien voir comment nous sommes arrivés jusque ici.

Entre 2003 et 2011, le PIB en prix courants a enregistré une augmentation cumulative de 35% aux États-Unis, et respectivement de 32%, 36% et 49% en Grande-Bretagne, au Japon et en Allemagne, tous exprimés en dollars américains. Durant la même période, le PIB nominal a bondi de 348% au Brésil, 346% en Chine, 331% en Russie et 203% en Inde, également exprimés en dollars américains.

Et il n’y a pas eu que ces pays appelés BRIC qui ont explosé. La production du Kazakhstan a augmenté de plus de 500%, tandis que l'Indonésie, le Nigeria, l'Ethiopie, le Rwanda, l'Ukraine, le Chili, la Colombie, la Roumanie et le Vietnam ont tous connu une croissance supérieure à 200%. Cela signifie que les ventes moyennes, mesurées en dollars américains, par les supermarchés, les sociétés de boissons, les grands magasins, les télécoms, les magasins d'ordinateurs et les vendeurs de motos chinoises ont augmenté à des taux comparables dans ces pays. Il est logique pour les entreprises de déménager là où les ventes en dollars sont en plein essor, et pour les gestionnaires d'actifs de placer l'argent là où la croissance du PIB mesurée en dollars est la plus rapide.

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