Konec večírku na rozvíjejících se trzích

CAMBRIDGE – Zápal pro rozvíjející se trhy letos vyprchává, a nejen proto, že americká centrální banka plánovaně seškrtává své rozsáhlé nákupy aktiv. Akcie a dluhopisy rozvíjejících se trhů jsou letos na sestupu a tamní hospodářský růst zpomaluje. Abychom pochopili proč, je užitečné vědět, jak jsme se do dnešní situace dostali.

V letech 2003 až 2011 se HDP v současných cenách ve Spojených státech zvýšil o úhrnných 35 % a ve Velké Británii, Japonsku a Německu o 32 %, 36 %, respektive 49 %, měřeno v amerických dolarech. V Brazílii nominální HDP během téhož období vyletěl o 348 %, v Číně o 346 %, v Rusku o 331 % a v Indii o 203 %, také v dolarech.

Boom přitom nezažily jen tyto takzvané země BRIC. Výstup Kazachstánu se rozrostl o víc než 500 %, zatímco Indonésie, Nigérie, Etiopie, Rwanda, Ukrajina, Chile, Kolumbie, Rumunsko i Vietnam si připsaly každá přes 200 %. To znamená, že srovnatelným tempem, posuzováno v amerických dolarech, rostl v těchto zemích průměrný odbyt supermarketů, producentů nápojů, obchodních domů, telefonních společností, obchodů s výpočetní technikou i prodejců čínských motocyklů. Dá rozum, že firmy se přesunou tam, kde odbyt v dolarech vzkvétá, a správci aktiv vloží peníze tam, kde je růst HDP v dolarech nejrychlejší.

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