新兴市场派对的结束

美国剑桥—今年,人们对新兴市场的热情开始退潮,这不仅是因为美联储计划削减其大规模资产购买计划。新兴市场股票和债券今年出现了下跌,经济增长也出现了减速。要理解原因,了解以下它们如何走到今天是大有裨益的。

用当前价格衡量,2003—2011年间美国GDP累计增长了35%,英国、日本和德国分别增长了32%、36%和49%(均为美元值)。与此同时,巴西名义GDP增长了348%,中国增长了346%,俄罗斯增长了331%,印度增长了203%(也是美元值)。

而出现繁荣的并不止于所谓的金砖国家。哈萨克斯坦产出扩张了500%多,印尼、尼日利亚、埃塞俄比亚、卢旺达、乌克兰、智利、哥伦比亚、罗马尼亚和越南也都增长了200%以上。这意味着超市、餐饮公司、百货商场、电信、电脑商店和中国摩托车厂商的平均销售额增长与这些国家旗鼓相当(以美元计)。公司明智的做法是进入美元销售额增长的地区,而对于资产管理者来说,应该把钱投向美元GDP增长最快的地方。

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