بريتون وودز 3

سنغافورة ــ يرى العديد من المحللين والمراقبين أن اختلالات التوازن العالمية التي ميزت الاقتصاد العالمي في الأعوام التي سبقت أزمة 2008 قد تبددت إلى حد كبير. ولكن على الرغم من اتجاه فوائض الحساب الجاري لدى الصين والعجز في الولايات المتحدة إلى الاعتدال بعض الشيء منذ ذلك الوقت، فهل تم تصيح الاختلالات حقا؟ والسؤال الأكثر أهمية، هل يتمكن الاقتصاد العالمي في مرحلة ما بعد الأزمة من تحقيق النمو والتوازن في نفس الوقت؟

لكي نجيب على مثل هذه التساؤلات، فمن الأهمية بمكان أن نفهم الديناميكيات التي أدت إلى هذه الاختلالات. إن الحساب الجاري لأي اقتصاد يتألف من الفارق بين معدل الاستثمار ومعدل الادخار. في عام 2007، كان معدل الادخار في الولايات المتحدة 14,6% من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي، ولكن معدل الاستثمار لديها بلغ 19,6%، الأمر الذي أدى إلى توليد عجز في الحساب الجاري. وعلى النقيض من ذلك، كان معدل الاستثمار في الصين ثابتاً عند نسبة 41,7% من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي، وكان معدل الادخار 51,9%، الأمر الذي انعكس في فائض كبير.

ومنذ عام 2007، ضاقت فجوة العجز الجاري في الولايات المتحدة، ولكن ليس بسبب ارتفاع معدل الادخار، بل إن ما حدث هو أن العجز الخارجي تقلص بسبب انهيار النشاط الاستثماري، في حين هبط معدل الادخار الإجمالي في أميركا إلى ما دون مستوى 13% من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي، بسبب تدهور الموارد المالية الحكومية. ومن ناحية أخرى، يظل معدل الادخار في الصين مرتفعاً بعناد. وتقلص الفائض لأن الاستثمار صعد إلى مستوى أعلى بلغ نحو 49% من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي. أو بعبارة أخرى، فإن الأميركيين يدخرون اليوم أقل مما كانوا يدخرونه قبل اندلاع الأزمة، والصينيين يستثمرون أكثر من ذي قبل.

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