L’ascension contrariée de Ségolène Royal

Il y a deux mois, les commentateurs politiques parisiens étaient unanimes : la course à la présidence restait ouverte, mais Ségolène Royal était clairement donnée favorite. Aujourd’hui la situation semble s’être inversée. Bien que rien ne soit encore joué, Nicolas Sarkozy arrive régulièrement en tête des sondages, et semble avoir également rallié à sa cause ceux qui le déclaraient perdant au mois de décembre. Le nouveau consensus peut être défini ainsi : Ségolène Royal ne peut pas battre Nicolas Sarkozy, mais Sarkozy pourrait encore provoquer sa propre défaite.

Pourquoi donc la candidate socialiste, la première femme à avoir une réelle chance de devenir présidente de la France, est-elle tombée si rapidement en disgrâce ? Et pourquoi Sarkozy s’est-il montré aussi endurant, malgré les réactions souvent négatives à sa personnalité ?

Si Ségolène Royal est battue, ce ne sera pas parce qu’elle est une femme, mais malgré le fait qu’elle le soit. Les Français sont prêts à élire une femme, mais peut-être pas celle-ci. Elle est séduisante, énergique, décidée et surprenante à bien des égards. En effet, ses prises de positions sur des questions comme la loi et l’ordre, le respect de l’autorité et le nationalisme sont assez éloignées de ce que l’on peut attendre d’un candidat socialiste.

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