Inarrestabile renminbi

PECHINO – A giugno, la Peoples’ Bank of China (Pbc), la banca centrale cinese, ha annunciato la fine dell’ancoraggio dello yuan-renminbi (Rmb) al dollaro, per la prima volta dopo 23 mesi, e il ritorno al regime dei tassi di cambio che era stato adottato prima della crisi, nel luglio del 2005. Finora, tuttavia, l’apprezzamento del Rmb nei confronti del dollaro è stato lento. <><><>Riuscirà la rivalutazione ad accelerare il passo a tal punto da soddisfare le richieste americane? Se sì, gli squilibri globali svaniranno prima?

Non si può dire che il Rmb non sia sottovalutato, considerati gli ingenti e costanti disavanzi delle partite correnti e del conto capitale della Cina. Ma, nonostante lo sganciamento dal dollaro, sembra improbabile che possano verificarsi nell’immediato futuro apprezzamenti più rapidi dello yuan.

La posizione ufficiale della Cina è che, per evitare eventuali ricadute di un renminbi più forte sulle esportazioni cinesi e quindi sull’occupazione, l’apprezzamento deve procedere in modo autonomo, graduale e controllabile. L’attuale regime dei tassi di cambio, che lega il Rmb a un paniere valutario, è stato realizzato per dare alla Pbc la libertà di controllare l’andamento dell’apprezzamento del Rmb, creando al contempo fluttuazioni in un senso o nell’altro nei confronti del dollaro americano con l’obiettivo di scoraggiare gli speculatori a scommettere univocamente sul Rmb.

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