Der künftige Weg des Renminbi

PEKING: Im Juni verkündete die chinesische Notenbank (PBC) ein Ende der 23-monatigen Dollarbindung und die Rückkehr zum im Juli 2005 eingeführten Wechselkurssystem der Zeit vor der Krise. Bislang freilich hat der RMB gegenüber dem Dollar nur langsam aufgewertet. <><><>Wird sich das Tempo der Aufwertung ausreichend beschleunigen, um die amerikanischen Forderungen zu erfüllen? Und falls ja, werden deshalb die globalen Ungleichgewichte schneller verschwinden?

Es lässt sich angesichts Chinas hoher, anhaltender Leistungsbilanz- und Kapitalbilanzüberschüsse schwer bestreiten, dass der RMB unterbewertet ist. Doch trotz des Endes der Dollarbindung scheint eine schnellere Aufwertung des RMB auf absehbare Zukunft unwahrscheinlich.

Chinas offizielle Haltung ist, dass die Aufwertung, um negative Auswirkungen eines stärkeren RMB auf Chinas Exporte und damit die Beschäftigung zu vermeiden, auf selbstgesteuerte, allmähliche und kontrollierbare Weise erfolgen müsse. Das derzeitige Wechselkurssystem, das den RMB an einen Währungskorb bindet, wurde konzipiert, um der PBC Spielraum bei der Kontrolle des Tempos der RMB-Aufwertung zu geben und zugleich Schwankungen im Wechselkurs gegenüber dem US-Dollar in beide Richtungen herbeizuführen, um Spekulanten von Einwegwetten in Bezug auf den RMB abzuschrecken.

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