Le renminbi va de l’avant

BEIJING – Au mois de juin, La Banque populaire de Chine (BPC), la banque centrale de la République populaire de Chine, a annoncé qu’elle mettait fin à l’ancrage du renminbi au dollar, en cours depuis 23 mois, pour retourner au taux de change, adopté en juillet 2005 et précédant la crise financière. Mais depuis cette annonce, l’appréciation du renminbi (RMB) face au dollar ne s’est faite que lentement. La réévaluation va-t-elle s’accélérer suffisamment pour répondre aux attentes américaines ? Si oui, les déséquilibres mondiaux disparaîtront-ils plus rapidement ?

Il est difficile de prétendre que le renminbi n’est pas sous-évalué, compte tenu de l’important et persistant excédent des comptes courants et du compte de capital de la Chine. Mais malgré l’abandon de l’ancrage au dollar, une appréciation plus rapide du RMB semble peu probable dans un avenir proche.

La position officielle de la Chine est que, pour éviter les conséquences qu’aurait un renminbi fort sur les exportations, et donc les emplois, de la Chine, l’appréciation de sa monnaie doit se faire graduellement et de manière contrôlée. Le régime de taux de change actuel, qui arrime le RMB à un panier de devises, a été adopté pour permettre à la BPC de contrôler le rythme d’appréciation du RMB, tout en créant des flux à deux sens du taux de change face au dollar US pour éviter les spéculations à sens unique sur le renminbi.

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