Il faut relativiser le réchauffement de la planète

Le réchauffement de la planète est devenu la plus grande source d'inquiétude de notre époque. De nombreux gouvernements et la plupart des militants rassemblés à Montréal jusqu'au 9 décembre affirment que le problème du réchauffement planétaire devrait être notre première priorité. La négociation d'une suite au protocole de Kyoto, expliquent-ils, implique que nous cherchions à réduire davantage encore la pollution qui provoque le réchauffement de la Terre.

Mais ils se trompent de priorité, et proposent un remède inefficace. En conséquence, nous risquons d'abord de perdre de vue qu'il est nécessaire de commencer par résoudre les plus importants problèmes mondiaux, et ensuite de passer à côté de la meilleure approche pour gérer le réchauffement planétaire sur le long terme.

Certes, le réchauffement de la planète est une réalité, et il est provoqué par les émissions de CO2. Le problème est que les meilleures simulations climatiques dont nous disposons aujourd'hui montrent qu'une action immédiate n'aura que peu d'effets positifs. Le protocole de Kyoto réduira les émissions de CO2 des pays industrialisés de 30% par rapport à ce qu'elles auraient représenté en 2010 et de 50% en 2050. Pourtant, même si tout le monde (et même les États-Unis) respecte le protocole à la lettre, et ce pendant tout le siècle, le changement ne sera pratiquement pas mesurable et n'aura fait que repousser le réchauffement de six ans en 2100.

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