京都的主次不分

当京都议定书在2月16日生效时,全球变暖的社团无疑会自我庆贺一番:为了(全人类的)福祉,他们签订了这个迄今为止最为昂贵的全球性公约。他们成功地使全球变暖成为我们这个时代的中心道德议题。但他们这样做是错误的。

全球变暖是真实的威胁,并且是由二氧化碳的排放造成的。但现有的气候模式表明我们对此却几乎无能为力。即便所有国家(包括美国)都遵守京都议定书的相关规定并在这个世纪严格执行,其所带来的气候改变也微乎其微,到2100年时也只是以每年1500亿美元的代价将变暖推迟了6年而已。

全球变暖将会主要危害发展中国家,因为他们更为贫困因而应对气候变化的能力更弱。然而,即使是来自联合国的最悲观的预测也预期发展中国家的普通民众在2100年时会比现在更富裕,也因此能更好的应对这一挑战。

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