改革游戏

改革若是长期停留在讨论阶段而不付诸于实施,危害将远远大于其会带来的好处。对于诸如养老金制度、健康体系或者失业补贴方面的改革的期盼,使得人们变得忧虑万分,尤其是那些将深受改革影响的人们。预计到他们迟早得开始为那些他们早已习惯的免费或者享受津贴的服务掏腰包,他们开始降低消费、增加储蓄。

但在欧洲,由于改革通常只是被讨论的对象,其带来的利益得不到实现:只有确定税率下调的时候人们才努力工作;而在金融市场,只有等改革得以批准后,政府降低支出的政策才能产生积极效果。同时,政治家们热衷于辩论却不做实事,使得消费者信心下降,经济表现恶化,人们对于批准改革的愿望第一个消失了。然而讨论还在继续,消费者信心也随之继续下滑。

最近发生在德国的事就是这样一个恶性循环的例子,令人担忧。德国慷慨大方的社会体系改革占据了近十年来德国各大报纸的头版。虽然德国政府实施了一些有限的措施,但两个月以前,德国报纸 Die Welt 作了一个调查后发现,可以用下面这句话来形容德国民众的普遍感觉:“采访者中47%由于对养老金和健康改革没有把握,正准备减少消费支出。”

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