El juego de las citas con la recesión

STANFORD – El optimismo que apareció en las fases tempranas de la recuperación de la crisis financiera y de la recesión ha dado paso a evaluaciones más realistas sobre las amenazas que afronta la economía mundial y sus partes constituyentes nacionales a corto, medio y largo plazo.

En muchos países, han surgido incluso temores de un período prolongado de crecimiento lento y a veces negativo, obstáculos persistentes para reducir el desempleo y angustia económica continua o, peor aún, de un “decenio perdido” con múltiples recesiones, al estilo japonés, o, mucho peor aún, de una depresión (que los políticos y los intelectuales han alimentado al intentar justificar una continua intervención estatal en gran escala en la economía en los próximos años).

Pero, ¿tan inhabituales son múltiples contracciones en períodos de graves dificultades económicas? Sería útil saber la respuesta a esa pregunta antes de intentar una y otra vez impulsar la economía a corto plazo con políticas costosas que podrían empeorar las perspectivas a largo plazo.

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