Rezessionen: das Datierungsspiel

STANFORD: Der in den frühen Stadien der Erholung von Finanzkrise und Rezession zu verspürende Optimismus hat einer stärker ernüchternden Bewertung der kurz-, mittel- und langfristigen Herausforderungen Platz gemacht, vor denen die Weltwirtschaft und ihre nationalen Bestandteile stehen.

In vielen Ländern sind sogar Befürchtungen einer anhaltenden Phase langsamen und gelegentlich negativen Wachstums, hartnäckiger Hindernisse bei der Reduzierung der Arbeitslosigkeit und anhaltender wirtschaftlicher Sorge aufgekommen – oder, schlimmer noch, Befürchtungen eines „verlorenen Jahrzehnts“ japanischen Stils mit mehreren Rezessionen oder gar einer Depression (die Politiker und Intellektuelle in dem Versuch, massive staatliche Interventionen in die Wirtschaft während der kommenden Jahre zu rechtfertigen, noch angeheizt haben).

Doch sind mehrere Konjunkturabschwünge in Phasen schwerer wirtschaftlicher Bedrängnis so ungewöhnlich? Es wäre nützlich, die Antwort auf diese Frage zu kennen, bevor man wiederholt versucht, die Wirtschaft durch eine teure Politik, die die langfristigen Aussichten verschlimmern könnte, kurzfristig aufzupumpen.

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