Dean Rohrer

Die Realität virtueller Macht

DAVOS – Während arabische Regime mit von Twitter und Al-Dschasira beflügelten Demonstrationen zu kämpfen haben und amerikanische Diplomaten versuchen zu begreifen, welchen Einfluss WikiLeaks hat, wird deutlich, dass unser globales Informationszeitalter ein differenzierteres Verständnis voraussetzt, wie Macht in der Weltpolitik funktioniert.

Diese Diskussion ist Gegenstand meines neuen Buches The Future of Power. In diesem Jahrhundert finden zwei Arten von Machtverschiebung statt – Machtwechsel und Machtdiffusion. Der Übergang von Macht von einem dominanten Staat auf einen anderen ist ein vertrautes historisches Muster, die Diffusion von Macht hingegen ist ein neuerer Prozess. Heutzutage besteht für alle Staaten das Problem darin, dass mehr Dinge außerhalb der Kontrolle sogar der Mächtigsten unter ihnen stattfinden.

In Bezug auf Machtwechsel wird dem angeblichen Niedergang Amerikas zurzeit viel Aufmerksamkeit zu teil, oftmals in Verbindung mit oberflächlichen historischen Analogien zu Großbritannien und Rom. Rom ist allerdings noch über drei Jahrhunderte nachdem es den Zenit seiner Macht erreicht hatte vorherrschend geblieben, und selbst dann musste es sich nicht dem Aufstieg eines anderen Staates beugen, sondern ist durch tausend kleine Schnitte ausgeblutet, die ihm verschiedene barbarische Stämme beigebracht hatten.

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