Dean Rohrer

La réalité du pouvoir virtuel

DAVOS – Tandis que les régimes arabes sont aux prises avec des manifestations alimentées par Twitter et Al Jazira et que les diplomates américains tentent de cerner l’impact de Wikileaks sur leurs activités, il est dès à présent manifeste que cet âge de l’information nécessitera une compréhension plus sophistiquée de la manière dont s’exerce le pouvoir dans les sphères politiques mondiales.

C’est l’idée que je développe dans mon dernier ouvrage, The Future of Power (L’avenir du pouvoir). Deux types de déplacement du pouvoir s’opèrent en ce début de siècle  – la transition du pouvoir et la diffusion du pouvoir. La transition du pouvoir d’un État dominant à un autre État est un processus historique connu, mais la diffusion du pouvoir est un phénomène plus récent. Tous les États sont aujourd’hui confrontés au problème de voir qu’une grande partie des informations échangées échappe à leur contrôle, même au contrôle des plus puissants d’entre eux.

Pour ce qui est de la transition du pouvoir, le déclin supposé des Etats-Unis fait actuellement l’objet de nombreuses spéculations, souvent accompagnées d’analogies faciles avec le déclin des empires romain et britannique. Mais Rome est restée une puissance hégémonique plus de trois siècles après son apogée, et sa fin ne fut pas due à l’émergence d’un autre État, mais aux innombrables blessures infligées par les tribus barbares.

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