chellaney130_KIYOSHI OTAPOOLAFP via Getty Images_quad meeting

Politics

التحالف الرباعي يكشر عن أنيابه

Oct 16, 2020 Brahma Chellaney

بيركلي ــ الرباعي تحالف حر غير مقيد يتألف من الديمقراطيات الأربعة الرائدة في منطقة المحيط الهادي الهندي، في عامنا هذا بدأ يتماسك ويترسخ ردا على السياسة الخارجية العدوانية التي تنتهجها الصين. في أعقاب اجتماع أخير في طوكيو ضم كبار مسؤولي السياسة الخارجية في هذه الديمقراطيات، تعمل أستراليا، والهند، واليابان، والولايات المتحدة الآن بنشاط نحو إنشاء بنية أمنية جديدة متعددة الأطراف للمنطقة. والفكرة ليست إنشاء نسخة آسيوية من منظمة حلف شمال الأطلسي (الناتو)، بل تطوير شراكة أمنية وثيقة تستند إلى قيم ومصالح مشتركة، بما في ذلك سيادة القانون، وحرية الملاحة، واحترام السلامة الإقليمية والسيادة، وحل النزاعات بالطرق السلمية، والأسواق الحرة، والتجارة الحرة.

تمثل الصين تحديا متناميا لكل هذه المبادئ. في وقت حيث يناضل العالم في التصدي لجائحة نشأت في الصين، أعطت النزعة التوسعية التي تنتهجها هذه الدولة وسلوكها المارق زخما جديدا لتطور الرباعي نحو ترتيب أمني رسمي متماسك.

بطبيعة الحال، يمتد تركيز الرباعي أيضا إلى ما وراء الصين، بهدف ضمان التوازن المستقر للقوى داخل "منطقة الهادي الهندي الحرة المفتوحة". جرى تفصيل هذا المفهوم بوضوح لأول مرة في عام 2016 من قِـبَـل رئيس الوزراء الياباني آنذاك شينزو آبي، وسرعان ما أصبح العمود الفقري للاستراتيجية الإقليمية الأميركية.

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China Is Paying a High Price for Provoking India
Waseem Andrabi/Hindustan Times via Getty Images

Politics 34

China Is Paying a High Price for Provoking India

Brahma Chellaney predicts that with Indian appeasement at an end, Xi Jinping will regret his aggression in the Himalayas.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 21 Comments on this article

Harsh Ray Oct 27, 2020

This week's New Delhi visits of Mike Pompeo and Mark Esper for joint discussions with their Indian counterparts, and the U.S. signing of the last of the four "foundational" defense agreement with India, show how China's aggression is creating an anti-China front. The Quad is a tribute to Xi's reckless policies.
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Rajiv Chopra Oct 19, 2020

Will we, in India, be strategic?Or, will we resort to empty bluster?
- P. Kamath Oct 20, 2020
  
  Indian soldiers are second to none for their courage and dedication. But India can not match staying power of Chinese. They have Loads of cold cash, well managed armament industries to produce tanks, artillery guns, weapons etc., first class aircrafts that are manufactured domestically, greater number of naval ships, submarines etc. and rocketry. Again a huge number of soldiers whose lives are expendable Like a canon fodder or like toilette tissues. Nobody can criticize CPC.
  
  SO India can not but USE technique of bluster which is nothing disgraceful in the art of survival, until the time is ripe. In modern day conflicts, it is very easy to get in but can be very very expensive to get out !
  - Rajiv Chopra Oct 21, 2020
    
    Well yes. But bluster can also be counterproductive. Which is why I used the phrase 'empty bluster'. Methinks, it will be strategic alliances that will see us through, as well as the fact that many countries are becoming wary of China. Jaishankar is a good External Affairs Minister
    - P. Kamath Oct 22, 2020
      
      Um! What is the difference between "empty bluster" and "loaded bluster"?
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- P. Kamath Oct 19, 2020
  
  The reply should come from Indians and not from outsiders! So what do you think?
  - Rajiv Chopra Oct 20, 2020
    
    Maybe. Will it, though?
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Leto Atreides Oct 18, 2020

When we talk about Chinese expansionism, we need to examine the evidence. Of all the territorial disputes China is involved in with its neighbors, what China is doing is fundamentally no different from the other claimants. The key differene is that the balance of power in all these disputes is tipping toward China because of China's growing power. China has certainly become more assertive in recent years, but there has been no indication that China seeks to resolve these disputes through military force. If we compare China with the US at a similar stage of ascendancy, we will find that the US was much more aggressive and did not hesitate to exercise its military muscle. This suggests the issue is how to manage China's growing power and the friction it brings. To paint China as an aggressor and respond accordingly risks creating a self-fulling prophecy. The more sensible approach is to manage China's rise and prod China toward accepting rule-based system, instead of fomenting confrontations based on ideology, which leaves no room for compromise. Talking about rule-based system, US is in no position to preach to China, nor is India given its recent policies in Kashmir and policies towards its Muslims. To convince China to accept a rule-based system, US must first set an example itself.
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Madurai Padmanabhan Oct 18, 2020

I for one do not see how values and interest of the Quad sync. Just having elections do not a democracy make.
Further the sudden visibility to this security alliance may not be only Xi related ; the last time an Asian nation became economically & technically powerful other methods, like FX manipulation vis a vis Plaza Accord was used to smother.
Why is the US ( & Australian Chamcha)not acting to protect the climate which is probably of greater importance than sovereignty protection .
While the Quad may increase the cost to China for its behavior, a poor country like India can ill afford such a “partnership” without tangible returns, with wealthy nations; a moral hazard, I would add.
As for the author of this essay, BC he should think about how he can use his expertise to provide water resources to India; not write such war mongering delusional nonsense. Perhaps this stuff pleases his finders more.
- P. Kamath Oct 19, 2020
  
  Any nation needs reputable analysts in different walks of life. The author has been a highly regarded expert - as one on Chinese history, geo-politics, etc. to educate not only the public but also those in the govt. to counter Chinese moves. Why should divert his experience to other things?
  
  From your earlier comments, I see you are a very smart in your trade. So what would you say , If I suggest you take up studies of desalination of coastal lands in Tamil Nadu? Obviously my views would be rubbished. So why not the author do his job well?
  - Madurai Padmanabhan Oct 20, 2020
    
    You believe in the author’s expert advice in China; I think he is just raising the tension.
    
    As the US has done all over the world, higher arms sales is the additional hidden opportunistic motive.
    
    In short, the author has a blind side. I am highlighting this and time spent in his original area of water resource proficiency may allow for deep reflection and more constructive thought. Not tribal rhetoric.
    
    To your desalination expert job advise, it sounds good. Thanks
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j. von Hettlingen Oct 18, 2020

Brahma Chellaney says Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Secretary of Defence Mark Esper will be visiting India on October 26-27 to strengthen the Quad, a loose strategic coalition of the Indo-Pacific region’s four leading democracies - Australia, India, Japan, India, and the US. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (The Quad) has regained prominence in recent years, with senior foreign ministry officials from the four nations meeting bimonthly.
The four Quad countries came together initially to deal with the fall-out of the 2004 tsunami in the Indian Ocean. There was subsequently a working-level meeting of the grouping, and a maritime exercise in 2007. The Quad 1.0 did not take off, for a number of reasons, including China’s reaction. It was revived in November 2017, after Shinzo Abe won his fourth term a month earlier on the platform of amending Article 9 of Japan’s pacifist constitution.
Although the author insists, the Quad is not meant to be an “Asian version of NATO, but rather to develop a close security partnership founded on shared values and interests, including the rule of law, freedom of navigation, respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty, peaceful dispute resolution, free markets, and free trade,” analysts see the coalition as a security arrangement to contain a rising China and deter Chinese aggression and its “might-makes-right” approach in the region.
China’s maritime claims in the South China Sea pose a threat to stability in Asia, prompting “distant powers” like France, Germany, and the UK to call for a “free and open” Indo-Pacific. They see the importance of “a stable, law-based” order as central to global peace and security. Last week, France has appointed Christophe Penot, the French ambassador to Australia as the first envoy for the Indo-Pacific amid growing Chinese influence in the region. Germany, which currently holds the presidency of the Council of the European Union, “has sought to develop an Indo-Pacific strategy” for the EU.
The author says, “the Quad’s future, however, hinges on India, because the other three powers in the group are already tied by bilateral and trilateral security alliances among themselves. Australia and Japan are both under the US security (and nuclear) umbrella, whereas India not only shares a large land border with China, but also must confront Chinese territorial aggression on its own, as it is currently doing.” China’s belligerence in the Himalayas earlier this year has “led to a major military standoff, raising the risks of further localized battles or another 1962-style frontier war.”
India’s trade dependence on China is huge. Precisely for this reason the US is seeking to “coax” India into a “soft alliance” without any “treaty obligations.” The author says the high-level meeting in New Delhi next week “will conclude with India signing on to the last of the four foundational agreements that the US maintains with its other close defense partners. Under these accords, both countries will be committed to providing reciprocal access to each other’s military facilities, securing military communications, and sharing geospatial data from airborne and satellite sensors.”
As the Quad members have held multiple bilateral and trilateral military exercises with each other other in the past, India is “likely to invite” Australia to this year’s “Malabar” naval war games with the US and Japan, marking “the first-ever Quad military exercise.” The author lauds Trump for building the Quad “into a promising coalition,” and upgrading “security ties with key Indo-Pacific partners, including Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Thailand, and India.”
The Trump administration has done much damage to the US-led global order by trashing America’s decades-old allies that have helped to uphold it. But when it comes to confronting China, he resorts to all means necessary. This plays into India's hands, as it sees China's aggressive policies as a threat to its territorial integrity.
Unfortunately, Xi has tarnished China's reputation, with global views of China reaching low due to the outbreak of Covid-19, its treatment of the Uighurs and its aggression towards Hong Kong and Taiwan.
It remains to be seen which role the Quad will play in the post-Covid-19 Asia. Much depends on whether the global economy will recover and what measures China is taking regarding Hong Kong and Taiwan.
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眼光 Canadian / China Oct 17, 2020

I'm Canadian do not hate anyone .
- P. Kamath Oct 19, 2020
  
  But hating US is acceptable , right!
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Shubham Singh Oct 17, 2020

There is a dire need to cure, discipline the rogue dragon. Finally the world has found a promising way to accomplish this.
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眼光 Canadian / China Oct 16, 2020

The USA is doing there best to turn every country against China
- P. Kamath Oct 16, 2020
  
  Yes, seems that way! Poor China - butchers of Chinese people - tens of millions during cultural revolution, genocidal massacre of Tibetan people during its occupation from 195o s, unleashing gun blazing tanks on their own students in Tuen Mien square and brutal suppression of Uighur Muslim citizens, etc. And planting fifth columnists outside e it’s borders, Confucius institutes..... What do you call that?
  - 眼光 Canadian / China Oct 17, 2020
    
    Another USA person comments . Let's just a good chance that the 100 year virus will take over the USA . Keep going wonderful lotus land is winning with most dead .
    - P. Kamath Oct 17, 2020
      
      In USA, 有足够的自我憎恨.
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Harsh Ray Oct 16, 2020

Under Xi, China is on the path of unbridled expansionism. Reining in China has become imperative for the international community. The Quad can be a good step in that direction.
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China Is Paying a High Price for Provoking India

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