Matt Wuerker

La promesa y el peligro del cambio global

MUNICH – Panta rhei . Todo fluye. Este aforismo griego me suele venir a la mente cuando pienso en los cambios económicos y políticos a lo largo de mi vida. Parecían tan imposibles antes de que ocurrieran como naturales en retrospectiva. El comunismo cayó. Alemania se unificó. Estados Unidos eligió un presidente negro. Y ahora estamos en una fase en la que Asia está alcanzando a Occidente y la hegemonía norteamericana está siendo cuestionada.

Mientras el capitalismo casino norteamericano colapsó, y los satélites económicos de Estados Unidos en Europa están sufriendo, China parece estar sacando ventaja de la situación, aumentado su superávit comercial en medio de la crisis económica global. De hecho, en los primeros cuatro meses de este año, China se convirtió en el principal exportador de bienes del mundo, superando a Alemania, el adalid anterior.

Es cierto que en otros términos económicos, China sigue muy rezagada. Si bien China representa el 20% de la población mundial, su participación del PBI global actualmente es de apenas el 7%. En contraposición, Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea representan el 54% del PBI global, a pesar de tener sólo el 12% de la población mundial.

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