Matt Wuerker

Преимущества и опасности глобальных изменений

МЮНХЕН. Panta rhei . Всё течёт. Этот древнегреческий афоризм часто приходит мне на ум, когда я думаю об экономических и политических изменениях, произошедших за мою жизнь. Они казались настолько же невозможными до того, как произошли, насколько естественными они казались впоследствии. Коммунизм исчез. Германия воссоединилась. В Соединённых Штатах в президенты выбрали чернокожего политика. А сейчас мы находимся на стадии, когда Азия догоняет Запад и американской гегемонии брошен вызов.

В то время как похожий на казино американский капитализм обрушился и европейские экономические спутники Америки находятся в трудном положении, Китай, по-видимому, пользуется ситуацией, увеличивая своё активное сальдо торгового баланса в разгар мирового экономического кризиса. За первые четыре месяца текущего года Китай стал ведущим экспортёром товаров в мире, обогнав предыдущего чемпиона – Германию.

Действительно, по остальным экономическим аспектам Китай по-прежнему отстаёт. Несмотря на то, что в Китае проживает 20% мирового населения, его сегодняшняя доля ВВП составляет лишь 7%. Для сравнения: доля мирового ВВП Соединённых Штатов и Европейского Союза составляет 54%, несмотря на то, что в них проживает лишь 12% мирового населения.

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