Matt Wuerker

Verheißung und Gefahr des globalen Wandels

MÜNCHEN – Panta rhei . Alles fließt. Dieser griechische Aphorismus kommt mir oft in den Sinn, wenn ich an die wirtschaftlichen und politischen Veränderungen in meiner Lebenszeit denke. Bevor sie eintraten, erschienen sie als ebenso unwahrscheinlich, wie sie im Nachhinein als selbstverständlich empfunden wurden. Der Kommunismus fiel. Deutschland wurde wieder vereinigt. Die Vereinigten Staaten wählten einen schwarzen Präsidenten. Und jetzt befinden wir uns in einer Phase, in der Asien gegenüber dem Westen aufholt und die amerikanische Vorherrschaft in Frage stellt.

Während der amerikanische Kasino-Kapitalismus zusammengebrochen ist und Amerikas wirtschaftliche Satelliten in Europa unter der Krise leiden, scheint China die Situation zu seinem Vorteil nutzen zu können, denn inmitten der Krise konnte es seinen Handelsüberschuss steigern. Und mehr noch: In den ersten vier Monaten dieses Jahres ist China zum führenden Warenexporteur der Welt aufgestiegen und hat dabei Deutschland aus seiner Spitzenposition verdrängt.

Es stimm zwar, dass China im Hinblick auf andere Wirtschaftsdaten immer noch weit hinterherhinkt. Obwohl China 20 % der Weltbevölkerung ausmacht, liegt sein Anteil am globalen BIP gegenwärtig bei lediglich 7 %. Auf die Vereinigten Staaten und die Europäische Union kommen zusammen 54 % des globalen BIP, obwohl sie nur über 12 % der Weltbevölkerung verfügen.

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