“排华风潮”的问题所在

当前人民币相对美元升值的压力和30年前日本在日元升值上所承受的压力极其相似。当年“排日风潮”的意思是除非日本软化其对于美国产业的竞争压力,否则美国将以贸易制裁相威胁。到了1995年,日本经济在过度升值的日元影响下变得如此低迷,以至于美国也变得温和,并宣布实施新的“强势美元”政策。现在又轮到“排华风潮”了,而其结果的严重程度可能比日本所遭遇的有过之而无不及。

2000年,中国对美国的贸易顺差和日本相当;而到了2004年则是日本的两倍。排日风潮包括(日本)“主动”对威胁美国重工业的商品出口进行限制。(美国国内)在这方面游说的政治势力非常强大和集中。而近期中国的出口商品主要是中、低档的轻工业品,因此,排华风潮首先意味着为人民币重新估价的压力。然而,这种需求就如同当初迫使日元升值的压力一样,是毫无根据的。

财经媒体和许多有影响的经济学家都认为需要对美元来一次重大贬值,以扭转美国国内赤字的状况。但美国经常项目下的赤字—约为2004和2005年GDP的6%--主要反映了美国联邦政府的新一轮赤字开支和美国家庭不可思议的低个人储蓄率(很可能是美国住宅不动产市场的泡沫造成的)。

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