John Overmyer

Der Preis der Untätigkeit

BERKELEY – Sind die Regierungen der Welt in der Lage, die Weltwirtschaft vor einer tiefen und langen Depression zu bewahren? Vor drei Monaten hätte ich Ja gesagt, keine Frage. Jetzt bin ich nicht so sicher.

Das Problem ist nicht, dass die Regierungen unsicher wären, was zu tun ist. Die Standard-Checkliste, was in einer Finanzkrise zu tun ist, um eine tiefe und lange Depression zu verhindern, wurde nach und nach im Laufe von zwei Jahrhunderten erarbeitet: vom Gouverneur der Bank of England, Cornelius Buller, 1825; vom Herausgeber der Zeitung The Economist im viktorianischen Zeitalter, Walter Bagehot; von den Ökonomen Irving Fisher, John Maynard Keynes, Milton Friedman und vielen anderen.

Das Hauptproblem in Zeiten wie diesen ist, dass die Nachfrage der Investoren nach sicheren, geschützten und liquiden Vermögenswerten – und damit ihr Wert – zu hoch ist, während die Nachfrage nach Vermögenswerten, die das Produktivkapital der Wirtschaft stützen und finanzieren zu niedrig ist. Die naheliegende Lösung ist, dass der Staat mehr Geld herstellt, um die Nachfrage nach sicheren, geschützten und liquiden Vermögenswerten zu befriedigen.

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