El dilema del ahorrador

BEIJING – La mayoría de las crisis financieras que ha habido en los 200 últimos años fue consecuencia de tensiones creadas por el reciclado de capitales procedentes de países con ahorro abundante en otros con poco ahorro. La crisis europea actual constituye un buen ejemplo de ello. Durante casi un decenio, capitales de países con ahorro abundante, como Alemania, se dirigieron a países con poco ahorro, como España. La consiguiente acumulación de deuda creó sus propias limitaciones y ahora la economía de Europa se ve obligada a reequilibrarse.

Si el reequilibrio se produce sólo en España y otros países con poco ahorro, el resultado, como advirtió John Maynard Keynes hace 80 años, ha de ser un desempleo mucho mayor. Que el desempleo permanezca confinado en países como España o con el tiempo migre a países como Alemania depende de si los primeros siguen dentro del euro.

Aunque las posiciones relativas en materia de ahorro de Alemania y España parecen confirmar los estereotipos culturales, las tasas nacionales de ahorro tienen poco que ver con las propensiones culturales. Más que nada reflejan en gran medida las políticas aplicadas en el país y en el extranjero y que determinan las tasas de consumo de los hogares.

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