Затруднительное положение владельца сбережений

ПЕКИН – Большинство международных финансовых кризисов, имевших место за последние двести лет, были результатом напряженности, вызванной рециркуляцией капитала из стран с высоким уровнем сбережений в страны с низким уровнем сбережений. Наглядным примером этого является текущий кризис в Европе. На протяжении примерно десяти лет капитал из стран с высоким уровнем сбережений, таких как Германия, перетекал в страны с низким уровнем сбережений, таких как Испания. Рост задолженности, вызванной этим, создал свои собственные ограничения, и в настоящее время требуется изменение баланса в экономике Европы.

Если изменение баланса произойдет только в Испании и других странах с низким уровнем сбережений, то результатом этого, как предупреждал восемьдесят лет назад Джон Мейнард Кейнс, должен быть более высокий уровень безработицы. Будет ли безработица ограничена такими странами, как Испания, либо со временем переместится в такие страны, как Германия, зависит от того, останется ли Испания в зоне евро.

Несмотря на то что может показаться, что соответствующие позиции Германии и Испании в отношении сбережений подтверждают культурные стереотипы этих стран, национальные уровни сбережений имеют отдаленное отношение к культурным склонностям. Вместо этого, они в значительной степени отражают внутреннюю и внешнюю политику, определяющую уровни потребления домовладений.

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