储蓄者困境

北京—过去200年中发生的大部分国际金融危机是由从高储蓄国家流向低储蓄国家的资本回流所导致的压力造成的。当前的欧洲危机就是如此。近十年来,德国等高储蓄国家的资本流向了西班牙等低储蓄国家。由此带来的债务积累造成了其自身的约束,眼下,欧洲正被迫进入再平衡过程。

如果再平衡仅仅发生于西班牙和其他低储蓄国家,那么,正如凯恩斯80年前所警告的,其结果将必然是失业率的陡然上升。失业是局限在西班牙等国家,还是最终蔓延到德国等国家,这取决于前者是否留在欧元区中。

尽管德国和西班牙的相对储蓄格局是文化定式的写照,但国民储蓄率与文化属性并没有太大关系。相反,这大体上反映了决定家庭消费率的国内外政策。

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