Tim Brinton

危机预防的代价

布鲁塞尔——

金融危机爆发到现在已经两年了,而我们才刚开始认识到它会带来多么严重的后果。英格兰银行的安德鲁·霍尔丹估计金融危机对未来产出造成的相关损失的现值将达到世界总GDP的100%。

这种估计可能看起来高得惊人,但是它是相对保守的,因为它假设最初的危机只有1/4的能量会导致长期产量下降。那些真正的厄运预测者相信,大多数甚至危机释放的全部能量都会对产出有长久的影响,总损失可能比上述估值高出2倍或3倍。

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