Tim Brinton

ثمن منع الأزمات

بروكسل ـ اندلعت الأزمة المالية العالمية منذ عامين، إلا أننا بدأنا ندرك الآن فقط حجم التكاليف الباهظة المترتبة على هذه الأزمة. ووفقاً لتقديرات أندرو هالدين من بنك إنجلترا فإن القيمة الحالية للخسائر الموازية في الناتج في المستقبل قد تصل إلى 100% من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي العالمي.

وقد يبدو هذا التقدير مرتفعاً إلى حد مذهل، ولكنه في واقع الأمر متحفظ نسبياً، حيث يفترض أن ربعاً واحداً من الصدمة الأولية سوف يسفر عن انخفاض دائم في الناتج. وطبقاً لمزاعم المتشائمين، الذين يعتقدون أن أغلب الصدمة، إن لم يكن كل الصدمة، سوف يخلف تأثيراً دائماً على الناتج، وأن الخسائر الإجمالية قد تكون ثلاثة أمثال ذلك الرقم.

إن عاماً واحداً من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي العالمي يبلغ نحو 60 تريليون دولار أميركي، وهو ما يعادل خمسة قرون من مساعدات التنمية الرسمية، أو 10 مليار فصل دراسي في القرى الأفريقية. لا شك أن هذا لا يشكل التكلفة المباشرة للموازنات العامة (التكلفة الإجمالية لحزم إنقاذ البنوك أقل من ذلك كثيرا)، ولكن هذا الناتج المفقود هو الذي يشكل التكلفة الأكثر أهمية حين نضع في الحسبان كيفية الحد من تكرار حدوث الأزمات.

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