Les plans de relance sont dangereux !

Pasadéna, Californie – La plupart des économistes croient que l'on peut appréhender les perturbations macroéconomiques telles que la récession en cours au moyen d'indicateurs agrégés combinant par exemple le niveau du chômage, des prix et la masse monétaire. Mais ce point de vue induit en erreur, notamment dans la situation économique que nous connaissons. Pire encore, il conduit à une politique économique néfaste.

Ainsi que l'a expliqué l'économiste Fischer Black, l'économie doit répondre aux attentes de la population en termes de ressources disponibles et de techniques de production. Une économie efficace répond largement à ces attentes, ces dernières s'accordant bien avec les ressources et les techniques de production ; la population se montre alors généralement satisfaite de ses projets d'investissement et de ses opérations financières.

Mais si le monde évolue dans une direction imprévue, ces opérations financières et ces projets sont remis en question. Les techniques de production ne répondent plus aux attentes et les ressources destinées initialement à la production diminuent. Cette dernière perd son efficacité, et répondant moins aux désirs des consommateurs, sa valeur baisse. C'est la récession.

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