Fragilité des dictatures

CAMBRIDGE – Le Rapport sur le développement humain 2010 de l'ONU (édition anniversaire de la vingtième année de publication) met en évidence le résultat remarquable des pays musulmans du Moyen-Orient et d'Afrique du Nord. Ainsi la Tunisie est classée sixième parmi 135 pays sur les 40 dernières années, devant la Malaisie, Hong Kong, le Mexique et l'Inde. L'Egypte figure non loin derrière à la 14°amp#160;place.

L'indice de développement humain (IDH) qui permet d'établir ce classement prend en compte non seulement la croissance économique, mais aussi la santé et l'éducation. L'Egypte, et encore davantage la Tunisie, se sont montrées performantes en terme de croissance, mais aussi particulièrement brillantes à l'aune de ces autres paramètres. Avec une espérance de vie de 74 ans, la Tunisie devance la Hongrie et l'Estonie, des pays plus de deux fois plus riches. 69% des enfants égyptiens sont scolarisés, un taux voisin de celui de la Malaisie pourtant bien plus riche. Manifestement l'Etat tunisien et l'Etat égyptien n'ont pas négligé la protection sociale et ont largement redistribué les bénéfices de la croissance.

Mais en fin de compte, cela n'a pas eu d'importance. Pour paraphraser Howard Beale, on peut dire que les peuples tunisiens et égyptiens étaient fou de colère contre leur gouvernement et n'étaient pas disposés à le subir encore longtemps. Si le président tunisien Ben Ali et le président égyptien Moubarak comptaient sur la croissance économique pour assurer leur popularité, ils doivent être bien déçus.

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