De wereldeconomie van na de crisis in drie woorden

PARIJS – Er zijn vijf jaar verstreken sinds de ondergang van de Amerikaanse zakenbank Lehman Brothers een financieel rampscenario in gang zette, dat tot de Grote Recessie heeft geleid. Hoewel het stof nog niet helemaal is neergedaald, vatten drie woorden samen wat we tot nu toe hebben geleerd – en wat er nog moet worden gedaan.

Het eerste woord waar je aan moet denken is veerkracht. Vijf jaar geleden waren velen bang voor een herhaling van de Grote Depressie van de jaren dertig. Aanvankelijk, zoals Barry Eichengreen en Kevin O’Rourke hebben aangetoond, leek de ineenstorting van de mondiale industriële productie in 2008-2009 als twee druppels water op die van 1929-1930. De daling van het volume van de wereldhandel en van de aandelenkoersen was zelfs nog sneller.

Gelukkig zijn de ontwikkelingen daarna anders verlopen. Vijf jaar na de crash van 1929 bevond de wereld zich nog steeds in een depressie en was de handel scherp gedaald. Vandaag kennen de Verenigde Staten nog steeds de ernstigste werkloosheid sinds de Tweede Wereldoorlog en is het Europese bruto binnenlands product (bbp) nog niet terug op het niveau van vóór de crisis, maar de mondiale productie is sinds 2008 met 15% gegroeid en de wereldhandel is sinds 2008 met ruim 12% gestegen.

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