La política en el mercado de valores

Muchos analistas económicos y financieros se quejan de que los gobiernos de los países emergentes a menudo manipulan demasiado sus mercados accionarios y que éstos son más políticos que económicos. El supuesto tácito parece ser que, por el contrario, alguna fuerza prístina de la naturaleza económica dirige los mercados de valores en los países avanzados, y que, por lo tanto, pronosticar su desempeño es como pronosticar el crecimiento de los árboles.

Esa descripción de los mercados accionarios de los países emergentes no es errónea, sino sólo parcial, porque también se aplica a los mercados de los países avanzados. En efecto, los mejores analistas saben que pronosticar el desempeño del mercado de valores de cualquier país significa en gran medida pronosticar cuánto quiere el gobierno que prosperen los inversionistas en el ambiente político del momento.

Veamos el mercado accionario de los Estados Unidos, el mayor del mundo por mucho. La percepción general es que el gobierno deja en paz a las compañías y que los dividendos que resultan de invertir en el mercado accionario reflejan las fuerzas fundamentales de una economía capitalista robusta. Esta es una de las razones por las que los EU son un imán para los inversionistas de todo el mundo.

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