La politisation des marchés des valeurs mobilières

De nombreux analystes économiques et financiers se plaignent que les marchés des valeurs mobilières des pays émergents sont souvent lourdement manipulés par leurs gouvernements et sont plus politiques qu'économiques. Par contraste, une force primitive de nature économique régit les marchés des valeurs mobilières dans les pays avancés et prédire leurs performances revient en fait à prédire la croissance des arbres.

Cette description des marchés des valeurs mobilières dans les pays émergents n'est pas fausse, juste partiale, car la même description s'applique aux marchés des valeurs mobilières dans les pays avancés. En effet, les meilleurs analystes savent que prédire les performances du marché des valeurs mobilières de n'importe quel pays revient au fond à prédire le degré auquel le gouvernement souhaite que les investisseurs des marchés des valeurs mobilières s'impliquent dans l'environnement politique actuel.

Prenez le marché des valeurs mobilières des Etats-Unis, de loin le plus important au monde. Le gouvernement laisse les entreprises tranquilles et les retours sur investissement dans le marché des valeurs mobilières américain reflètent les forces fondamentales d'une économie capitaliste solide. Ceci explique en partie pourquoi les Etats-Unis attirent les investisseurs de portefeuille du monde entier.

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