Os Populistas da Europa estão à Porta

LONDRES – Terá a crise europeia chegado ao fim? Investidores, analistas políticos e até mesmo representantes estão a começar a dar sinais de que assim é. O euro valorizou-se em relação ao dólar em quase 10%, desde que o presidente do Banco Central Europeu, Mario Draghi, prometeu em 26 de Julho que faria "o que fosse preciso" para preservar a moeda.

Do mesmo modo, o VIX da Europa, uma medida popular de expectativa de volatilidade do euro, diminuiu significativamente. Os custos com a aquisição de protecção contra as flutuações da taxa de câmbio euro/dólar diminuíram, no mês passado, para o nível mais baixo dos últimos cinco anos. Os custos de empréstimos para os governos espanhol e italiano também baixaram significativamente.

Esta mudança nas condições de mercado é fundamentada por uma narrativa consistente. Os líderes europeus criaram mecanismos para apoiar a Itália e Espanha. O continente dispõe, desde Outubro, de um Mecanismo Europeu de Estabilidade (MEE) operacional para comprar novos títulos de dívida pública italiana e espanhola caso os investidores "entrem em greve".

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